Strategic Foresight - Insights in Business and Technology

Telstra Network Paradox: Growth Trap: More network → More customers → More usage → More capex.  Returns Impact: Historically subpar ROC (5-6%) due to continuous investment needs. Future:  10% ROIC by 2030 is highly ambitious 5G Network Evolution Higher frequency bands require denser base station networks.  Fixed mobile internet growth (NBN competitor) increases infrastructure demand. Hypothesis:  Telstra’s competitive advantage in network quality requires sustained high capex, limiting FCF and shareholder returns. Capex: 16.5% × $23Bn revenue = $3.8Bn annually.  FCF Under The Hood Current EBIT: $3.8Bn  Capex Intensity: 16-17% of revenues  ~$23Bn revenue, so capex ≈ $3.7-3.9Bn.  Depreciation & Amortisation: ~$2.5Bn (typical for telcos). Taxes: $3.8Bn × 30% = $1.14Bn.  FCF = EBIT + Depreciation - Taxes - Capex – WC FCF = $3.8Bn + $2.5Bn - $1.14Bn - $3.8Bn - $0 (stable)  ≈ $1.36Bn. FCF Yield = $1.36Bn / $75Bn   ≈ 1.8% (low, r...

Both T-Mobile and Telstra are having a crack at turning their 5G networks into programmable platforms by using standardised APIs. But their approaches are a bit different when it comes to what they're aiming for, how they're going about it, and how they're getting it done. T-Mobile's DevEdge platform, which is all hooked up with GSMA Open Gateway , is really pushing a big, broad API ecosystem for both everyday punters and big businesses, chucking in a mix of Operations Support Systems (OSS) and Business Support Systems (BSS) APIs. On the flip side, Telstra's gone through its Muru-D Labs and Nokia's Network as Code platform, mainly focusing on OSS APIs for enterprise use cases. This lines up nicely with their Connected Future 30 strategy and the Aduna joint venture . Below, we'll compare these different ways of doing things, suss out the good bits and the not-so-good bits, see who else is using Nokia's platform, and highlight the differences in the...

  Financial Highlights: H1 FY25 Results as a Foundation for T30 Telstra’s H1 FY25 results underscore its financial momentum, with strong performance across key segments: Total EBITDA: Up 6% to $4.28 billion, with six out of seven business segments showing growth. Mobile Segment: Delivered 4% earnings growth, contributing 61.9% of total EBITDA with a world-class ~50% margin. InfraCo: Grew EBITDA by 7%, with margins expanding to 62%. Fixed Segment: Achieved a remarkable 74% year-over-year EBITDA increase to $183 million. Return on Invested Capital (ROIC): Reached 8.0%, up from previous years, targeting 10% by FY30. Earnings Per Share (EPS): Grew 6% to 8.9 cents, supporting a dividend increase. Dividend Per Share (DPS): Increased 6% to 9.5 cents from 9.0 cents. Free Cash Flow (FCF): Full-year guidance of $3.0–$3.4 billion, implying a ~4.5% FCF yield. Gearing Ratio: 2.16x net debt to EBITDA in FY24, projected to decrease to 2.0x in FY25. Share Buyback: $750 million ...