Strategic Foresight - Insights in Business and Technology

 India China Strategic Play - Striving for Growth and Leadership 

Australian Economic Outlook FY2024  The Australian Economy is Strong and Stable.  GDP is to grow by 1.4% and will accelerate in 2025.  Interest Rates will head southwards in Q2. Commodity, Minerals, Tourism and Education driving the growth.

 Australian Economy Update - FY 2022 Cash Rate at 1.85% in Aug and Inflation 6.1% The housing sector is weakening with steep ring IR, 1st home buyers from the last 2 years will struggle and fixed mortgage holders will have their mortgages finished in the next 12 months.   Rising Inflation is a key issue across the globe for the Reserve Bank, with a risk of recession and stagflation Read - Why Inflation is Rising What is Stagflation Source: CBA FY22 Results

 Australian Economic Outlook - FY 23 Australian Economic Outlook - FY 22 (Feb Update) - 

 

 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) to Global Inflation Crisis (GIC) Spectrum

Key Trends and Message from A T&T Results from Mar 2022 Monthly consumption at is accelerating from 900 gigabytes to nearly a terabyte today. We are consuming roughly 30x more data in our homes than we are on the go with our smartphones.  Homes are getting smarter and they're becoming more demanding environments where flawless, high-quality broadband is required. Our home has become a work environment. The average household today has 13 devices, and that's expected to triple by 2025. Enterprises are managing a multi-cloud environment, they require more low latency and secure bandwidth. Fibre is economical and superior therefore consumption over wireless is used for high-value mobile applications.   IoT connectivity is growing 18% year-over-year. The next wave of digital transformation is being driven by cloud, AI and connected sensors. Data growth is exploding post covid driven by hybrid arrangement, pent-up demand and everything digital. Fibre is not only economical ...

Big techs ambition - (FB, AMZN, APL, MSFT, Google)  Three things you can not buy Mobile Sector has lessons for Indias Economy Why Customers don't like Sales Rep How to establish Leadership presense Making changes is not a matter of willpower

Australian Economy Update - Half Year FY 22  Trade Surplus Driven by Mining Sector (like Coal) IR hike is expected in Q4. Source:  CBA.

 

 

 

  Export to China primarily iron ore is bringing Revenue 3 times what was estimated in the budget (from USD $55/tonne to $200/tonne).  Once Brazil overcomes labor supply and Chinese mines open for business in Africa, Australia will see the impact.   While household debt and savings are rising. Frequent and strict lockdown in major cities of Australia means less spending by people. Australia is still behind other OECD countries when it comes to green energy. Australian Vaccine rollout is abysmal compared to US, UK, Canada and EZ. This means a conservative approach of the elongated lockdown applied, threatening its economy in a globally connected world.     Frequent and elongated lockdown in major cities of Australia, primarily Sydney and Melbourne threatening FY22 Q1 and Q2 (likely) with downward growth. Source: CBA

The economy is ‘roaring back to life’ - key indicators below:  The budget bottom line is $133 billion, which $30 billion better than forecasts in December, due largely to surging income taxes off the back of jobs growth, as well as increased superannuation and company taxes. The former reflects a rebounding share market, the latter a business recovery led by retail.  More details here - https://lnkd.in/gSCQqfG   Iron Ore demand by China is cushioning the debt.   Recovery in Employment  

From AFR: More economists have backed the federal budget to return to surplus within four years and investment bank UBS suggests it could be done without substantial near-term fiscal repair. The UBS economists suggest that: It’s plausible the budget will project a return to balance in 2024-25 (as occurred in 2018-19 before COVID hit), with a cumulative improvement of about $200 billion across the [forward estimates],’’ the UBS economists wrote in a note to clients. The UBS economists also expect the improvement could push the Reserve Bank of Australia into tapering its massive $200 billion bond-buying program. More can be read here