Strategic Foresight - Insights in Business and Technology

Mapping of Tech Spend and Technology gives a good view of IT spending in 2023 Mapping of Digittal Services across Consumers and Enterprises gives a good view of Telecom spending in 2023 My Other Post on  -"Telecom Industry Australia - Where the Money will be spent in the next two to three years", can be read here .

Adani Stock in Perspective: PE today is 94. Before the Hindenburg report it was > 254. Valuation Guru- @AswathDamodaran highlights his view on Adani stock .  According to him, the stock is overpriced even after the Hindenburg report impact. He values the stock for Rs 947. On Jan 1, 2023, the stock was trading at Rs 3858 and PE around 254.  Today the stock is trading at Rs 1719 and a PE of 94.  Background: Adani Group which was established in 1984 has become a conglomerate of infrastructure companies in sectors like airports, shipping, logistics, power generation (solar), and defence.   It's well established that infrastructure companies are about high volume and low margin, where with ageing returns get better, unlike telecom where returns diminish with ageing. While the Adani group had an astronomical rise from 2021 onwards where revenue grew by 112.70%, its margins were low at 3.4%, which is on the lower side as compared to other companies in this sector.  Adani group has bui

 Telecom Industry Evolution - 1990 to 2023 elecTelecom Industry Operating Model Evolution - 1990 to 2023 From Linear to Agile Telecom Industry Performance -2023  Telecom Industry Growth - Spectrum  Organic and Inorganic Telecom Industry - Todays Setup and Building Blocks 

Key Message: Market Size: $2.9 Tn  Growth (CAGR): (6%), Recovering since COVID   Technology Change: High  Life Cycle: Matured Regulation: Heavy  Avg P/E < 15 (no growth), Industry is struggling in generating ROI  Organic Growth: Both Horizontal and Vertical Play are employed  Inorganic Growth: Adapt, Amalgamate, Acquisition

The Telecom sector across the globe has been struggling, with industry performance in the bottom quadrant.  In Australia, most of them are recovering or heading in the top quadrant driven by the change in demand profile since COVID.  Most telecom companies Beta < 1 (less volatility).   Telecom Opportunity Key Trends Telecom industry across the globe is recovering from being in decline or stagnant in the last 5-10 years. This recovery is driven by the change in demand profile because of COVID. Since early 2020 demand for digital enabled services like self serve, self care, mobile first, remote work and collaboration has grown by 3-5 times. This has resulted in a spurt in demand for data (x3), high speed internet and mobility.   Industry's focus has shifted from Revenue Generation to Revenue Protection and Generation. The Customer engagement has shifted to non negotiable CX (intuitive and simplicity), Resiliency and Stickiness. Fulfilment of this demand is enabled by

Digital Transformation Spectrum - 2011 to 2022  Sales Trigger has evolved with the Evolution of the Digital Transformation Journey from early 2011 to Post Covid.  The spectrum of Primary Sales and Transformation Triggers are highlighted below. This is my 1st draft of the digital transformation spectrum, keen to get some feedback. Core Components and Enablers Digital Transformation - Economic Model Digital Transformation - OPEX Lens from Efficiency Dividend to Enabling Revenue Generation   Digital Transformation - Pathways Digital Transformation - IT Services Landscape  

 Telecom Industry Australia - Where the Money will be Spent in the next two to three years. My other post on "IT Services Opportunity and Spend Profile in Telecom sector" can be read here Disclaimer: All discussed thoughts & opinions are my own & not those of my employer or other parties.

 What NBN Co Needs to increase the uptake of high-speed internet - Follow the Kiwi Model Comparing the typical RSP price point between  NBN Co  and Chorus NZD (Fibre Wholesaler), NBN Co lacks not only price parity and affordability but also the avg speed and higher speed tier simplicity. The new SAU proposal by NBN Co is a good start. Reducing the price by $5 to $10/month on 100 Mbps to 1Gpbs lacks the imagination and will to spur digital growth & intake of high-speed internet. It appears to be shackled by the serviceability of $27 Bn debt for any aggressive pricing & cost relief.  Open Reach is following a Simpler High-Speed Tiering model with Economical Pricing like  Chorus NZD . In terms of Fibre Access type, it is leveraging FTTC, FTTP (Gfast) & EE (10Gbps) for Enterprise. More than 360 Retail Service Providers in play

 

 Why SD-WAN is becoming a battleground for Wholesalers, Telecom Operators, RSPs and OTT Players Source: Gartner

Telecom State of Play and Growth Areas - 2022  For background on Why Telcoms are struggling please read my POV in 2012 -  Why Telcos are Endangered Species

Top 10 Artificial Intelligence Companies in Media Ecosystem  Appier  GumGum  Sizmek by Amazon  IBM Watson  Dstillery  Invoca  Influential  Quantcast  Heuritech  NetBase Quid  More details here

  Ten Rebranding Do’s And Don’ts   Do re-imagine your business beyond the logo.  Do gain support from the C-suite.  Do get internal as well as external insights.   Do keep it real. Do bring in all key stakeholders.  Do leverage the opportunity to drive broader change.   Do over communicate.   Do keep it aligned.  Do make sure your people can deliver.   Do find the right partner.    What’s in Today’s MarTech Toolkit?   Close to two-thirds (64%) of all the marketers surveyed are currently using artificial intelligence (AI). A full 60% say they have a fully defined AI strategy. This year, the leading use case for those marketers using AI is to drive next best actions, followed by personalizing the overall customer journey and automating customer interactions.    How to Win over a Team of Experts Try these three strategies: 1. Look inward to the team. Your success will depend on your ability to build interdependence and cooperation among team members. Focus on the team itself and se

Template for driving growth. Grow by Building Market Share  Grow through Developing Committed Customers and Stakeholders  Grow by Developing a Powerful Brand  Grow by Innovating New Products, Services, and Experiences  Grow by International Expansion  Grow by Mergers, Acquisitions, Alliances, and Joint Ventures  Grow by Building an Outstanding Reputation for Social Responsibility  Grow by Partnering with Government and NGOs Source:  Market Your Way to Growth by Philip and Milton Kotler

 Where is the growth in a capital intensive company? Disclaimer: All discussed thoughts & opinions are my own & not that of my employer/others.

 B2B Sales - NPS Fallacy for Growth Source: Gartner.com

Mckinsey writes about 6 different models for building the digital business. More can be read here 

 Post-COVID - Know Your Dynamic Demand Profile Trigger to Identify Growth Areas  Source: HBR October 2020 Edition