Strategic Foresight - Insights in Business and Technology

The COVID-19 pandemic exposed America’s reliance on foreign supply chains, with chip shortages grinding industries to a halt. His response? A tariff tsunami to bring tech production home, shrink the $1 Tn US trade deficit (2024), and fortify the US as a tech superpower. This isn’t just about trade—it’s about keeping your Nvidia and Apple shares safe from China’s reach while ensuring AI and chip supremacy.   The US Economy: Tech Gains, Portfolio Pains The US, with its $28.6 Tn GDP in 2024, is bracing for impact as tariffs ripple through tech-heavy sectors. IT Services: The $1.3 Tn IT industry faces pricier imported hardware—servers, AI gear, you name it. Growth, forecast at 5.8% annually through 2030, could stall as costs climb, hitting your SaaS and cloud bets. Telecom: 5G rollout slows as tariffs jack up costs for Chinese and Mexican components. Verizon and AT&T might lose $50 Bn yearly in productivity—check your telecom holdings. Stock Market & Mag 7: The “Magnific...

Superloops Growth Strategy Analysis Superloop employs a balanced growth strategy combining organic expansion and strategic acquisitions, with current emphasis shifting toward organic scaling Growth Strategy Breakdown Strategy Type Components Examples/Evidence Impact Organic Growth (Primary Driver) - Customer acquisition (+62.6% YoY) - Market share gains (nbn up to 6.3%) - Product innovation (FTTP contracts, higher ARPU plans) - Wholesale partnerships (Origin, Leaptel)  - 37,000 net new Consumer customers in HY25 - 30.6% organic revenue growth - $20M marketing investment (FY22-FY23)  Accounts for ~70% of recent growth Inorganic Growth (Strategic Supplement) - Targeted acquisitions (Exetel, Uecomm) - Uecomm acquisition adds 2,000km fibre - Origin migration: 130k customers - Exetel synergies ($5M+/year)  Accelerates infrastructure/customer base growt...

Aussie Broadband H1FY25 Results: Business & Enterprise Growth Shines Aussie Broadband (ABB) has released its interim results for the first half of the 2025 financial year, showcasing a period of steady growth and strategic expansion. While the residential NBN business continues its upward trajectory, the real story lies in the impressive growth of the business and enterprise segments. Metric Result Significance Overall Revenue $588m (+7%) Steady growth EBIT 37% increase Significant improvement NBN Market Share 7.8% (target 10%) Shows Aussie's growing market presence Residential Revenue $327m (+15%) Core business remains strong Residential Gross Margin 31% (slight increase) Marginal improvement in profitability Business Segment Revenue $54m (+13%) Rapid growth in business segment Business Segment Customer Growth ~50% ...

Telstra's Dual Strategy: Investor Lens Telstra's first half FY25 results have delivered a strategic surprise that signals management's growing confidence in the company's financial strength. With a clean 6% increase in underlying earnings, Telstra has not only raised its dividend as expected but also announced a significant share buyback program. This dual approach to shareholder returns marks a new chapter for a telecommunications giant that has dramatically transformed recently. Segment Performance: Mobile Leads with World-Class Margins   Mobile dominance continues:  The Mobile division delivered 4% earnings growth, exceeding analyst expectations despite only four months of price increases and disruption from the 3G network shutdown. Why it matters:  With Mobile (>40% market share) accounting for over 60% of total EBITDA and maintaining an extraordinary 47% margin (among the highest globally), this segment remains Telstra's crown jewel. The division's abi...

Telecom Network Evolution to Cloud Native    Emerging Trends in Telecom Network --

From Four to Six Pillars: The Evolution of the Australian Telecom Industry  The Rise of Aussie Broadband:  The Australian telecommunications landscape has witnessed a significant transformation in recent years, shifting from a traditional four-pillar model dominated by Telstra, Optus, TPG, and the NBN, to a six-pillar model that now includes Vocus and Aussie Broadband. This evolution has been driven by a confluence of factors, including regulatory changes, evolving consumer demands, technological advancements, and strategic diversification. A "pillar" refers to any telecommunications operator with a revenue of $1Bn or more. A New Era of Competition Aussie Broadband, with its rapid growth and strategic acquisitions, has emerged as a key player in this evolving market. With revenue at ~$1Bn, the company is poised to solidify its position as the sixth pillar of the Australian telecommunications industry. (PE TTM - 35.7, PB - 1.7)  Key Factors Driving the Transition...

First, what I wrote about ABB's FY23 Results last year.     Update on ABB's Business  ABB's Acquisition Spree - Ongoing Tussle and Drivers Behind it.  My other post on NBN and its Economics

Australia Telecom Industry in Transition - From Four Pillar to Six Pillar Model  Australia Telecom Industry - Fixed Services  Australia Telecom Industry - Fixed Internet Ranking   Australia Telecom Industry - Mobile Services  Australia Telecom Industry - Mobile Internet Ranking   My previous post on the Global Telecom Industry Evolution to date.

 Generative AI - Framework to Identify Use Case and Investment Application of Framework - Use Cases for Telecom Gen AI - Use Cases for Telecom

 NVIDIA - The Godfather of AI - Why the Market is Bullish Key Message Q2 FY23 -  The data centre business, driven by demand from cloud providers and internet companies, played a vital role, contributing $10.32 billion (76% of total revenue). Gaming revenue also grew positively to $2.49 billion. Products like the H100 tensor core GPU, DGX supercomputers, inference platforms, and AI Infrastructure-as-a-Service in the cloud are poised to transform AI delivery, partnered with major cloud providers. Today Nvidia commands 70% of the AI Chip market. Other Key players are AMD, ARM (Softbank) and Intel.  If you take the other Nvidia divisions separate them out and add them together, revenues were up by 9.9% to $3.18Bn. That’s another way of saying that the Nvidia datacentre business is now 3.2x bigger than the rest of Nvidia, and the datacentre business now accounts for 76.4% of the overall sales for the company. A single chip can cost upwards of US$40K  and Open AI used abou...

How Generative AI Can Transform Communication Service Providers (CSPs)  The global generative AI in telecom market size was at US $150.81Mn in 2022 and it is expected to rise to US $4.9Bn by 2032, with a CAGR of 41% from 2023 to 2032. Response from GenAI tool:  -- Generative AI has the potential to transform Communication Service Providers (CSPs) in several ways, enabling them to enhance their services, improve operational efficiency, and stay competitive in a rapidly evolving industry. Here are some key ways generative AI can drive transformation for CSPs: Enhanced Customer Experiences: Generative AI can be used to create highly personalised customer experiences. Chatbots and virtual assistants powered by generative models can provide 24/7 customer support, answer queries, and offer personalized recommendations, improving overall customer satisfaction. Natural Language Processing (NLP): Generative AI models can process and understand natural language, allowing CSPs to offer ...

Why Telcos are Struggling for ROI  Response from GenAI Tool -- The telecom sector has faced several challenges that have made it difficult to generate a satisfactory return on investment (ROI). While these challenges can vary by region and market conditions, here are some key factors contributing to the struggles of the telecom sector in generating ROI: High Infrastructure Costs: Building and maintaining the physical infrastructure for telecommunications networks, including towers, fibre optics, and data centres, requires substantial capital investment. The initial costs of rolling out networks and keeping them up-to-date can be burdensome. Intense Competition: Telecom markets are often highly competitive, with multiple providers vying for the same customer base. This competition can lead to price wars, reduced profit margins, and increased spending on marketing and customer retention. Regulation and Compliance: The telecom industry is subject to complex and evolving regulatory ...

 Aussie Broadband's  (ABB) FY23 Results and Why it's Emerging as an Acquisition Target NBN Consumer 2019, 100K customers, unprofitable.  2023, 700K customers, NPAT of $37Mn. 65% of Revenue from the consumer segment. 12% of NBN customers are on >  $100/month plan and 40% of Aussie customers are in this segment. Aussie acquires more than half of all new high value subscribers to the NBN. Business & Govt Business segment grew by 8% to $90Mn Rev. EE is adding to margin growth >800 new deals – SMB is driving it  Both segments utilise wholly owned fibre and an internally built cloud platform to generate 50% GM against residential GM of 30%. As those segments grow, profits will disproportionately rise. Smallest telco to build its own fibre backhaul. Built in house software to manage data loads, billing and other core functions. Wholesale business offers white labelled telco services to 3rd parties like Origin, was its fastest growing segment and a genuine sur...

TPG Heading for a Challenging Future  HY23 Results - Key Takeaways - The merger with Vodafone was a necessary remedy to the NBN, but it hasn’t lived up to expectations. TPG’s plan for the Vodafone merger was to do what it has always done – cram lots of users through a fixed asset base to raise profits. It hasn’t worked out that way. Selling off the wholesale Fibre Business can be likened to relinquishing a fortress, where the installation of the fibre requires minimal capital and new customers translate to higher margins and earnings, with the capacity for expansion being remarkable. This decision can be interpreted as a demonstration of TPG's weakness, rather than one that emanates from a position of strength. The business cannot sustain an expensive multi-brand strategy as it shifts towards a pure RSP play. Hence abandoning it. The emerging trend of choosing Prepaid mobile over post-paid is reemphasised (MVNO Play). Post-paid ARPU increase primarily from price rise in Jan and Feb...

  NBN Co FY 23 Results - Key Takeaways  -- NBN Co’s Revenue has increased by 4% in FY23 and is facing headwinds for increasing the revenue.  CAGR stands at 8.7%. WACC - 3.18% (heading upwards) Has the highest EBITDA margin (68.2%) among telcos globally. Consumer uptake is at a snail's pace with only 40K net additions in the last 12 months.  12.3 Mn customers ready to connect  8.56 Mn are active (30% idle network) 6.64 Mn (78.2%) users are on <= 50 Mbps 2 Mn (24.2%) users < 50 Mbps, 4.52 Mn users on 50 Mbps 1.83 Mn (20.7%) users are on >= 100 Mbps (risen by 2%) 6.6 Mn premises ready for Ultrafast (incl 2.5 Mn on HFC) Poor uptake – only 50-60K has upgraded In all 1.83 Mn users are using Ultrafast (>=100 Mbps) internet. Facing heat from Starlink and 5G providers in remote areas Starlink In Australia > 120K subscribers Sky Muster has declined from 108K to 96.1K In the Enterprise 35K EE SIOs are active.  It seeks to improve its top and bottom lin...

Exploring the Digital Services Landscape and Opportunities for the Telecom Industry in Australia . Consumer: Financial Services across Insurance, e-commerce and Fintech have an addressable market of > $100 Bn and Telcos are eager to increase their wallet share to the mid-20s.  Enterprise:  The potential for growth in areas like IoT and Smart places is immense, with minimal infrastructure investment required in comparison to 5G.   Private 5G and SD-WAN are currently in high demand across various industries including Mining, Tourism, Energy, Heathcote, and Supply Chain. These verticals are the focus due to their increasing need for advanced technological solutions. My previous post on IT Services Opportunity across the Telecom Industry