Strategic Foresight - Insights in Business and Technology

From Four to Six Pillars: The Evolution of the Australian Telecom Industry  The Rise of Aussie Broadband:  The Australian telecommunications landscape has witnessed a significant transformation in recent years, shifting from a traditional four-pillar model dominated by Telstra, Optus, TPG, and the NBN, to a six-pillar model that now includes Vocus and Aussie Broadband. This evolution has been driven by a confluence of factors, including regulatory changes, evolving consumer demands, technological advancements, and strategic diversification. A "pillar" refers to any telecommunications operator with a revenue of $1Bn or more. A New Era of Competition Aussie Broadband, with its rapid growth and strategic acquisitions, has emerged as a key player in this evolving market. With revenue at ~$1Bn, the company is poised to solidify its position as the sixth pillar of the Australian telecommunications industry. (PE TTM - 35.7, PB - 1.7)  Key Factors Driving the Transition...

First, what I wrote about ABB's FY23 Results last year.     Update on ABB's Business  ABB's Acquisition Spree - Ongoing Tussle and Drivers Behind it.  My other post on NBN and its Economics

TPG Heading for a Challenging Future  HY23 Results - Key Takeaways - The merger with Vodafone was a necessary remedy to the NBN, but it hasn’t lived up to expectations. TPG’s plan for the Vodafone merger was to do what it has always done – cram lots of users through a fixed asset base to raise profits. It hasn’t worked out that way. Selling off the wholesale Fibre Business can be likened to relinquishing a fortress, where the installation of the fibre requires minimal capital and new customers translate to higher margins and earnings, with the capacity for expansion being remarkable. This decision can be interpreted as a demonstration of TPG's weakness, rather than one that emanates from a position of strength. The business cannot sustain an expensive multi-brand strategy as it shifts towards a pure RSP play. Hence abandoning it. The emerging trend of choosing Prepaid mobile over post-paid is reemphasised (MVNO Play). Post-paid ARPU increase primarily from price rise in Jan and Feb...

  NBN Co FY 23 Results - Key Takeaways  -- NBN Co’s Revenue has increased by 4% in FY23 and is facing headwinds for increasing the revenue.  CAGR stands at 8.7%. WACC - 3.18% (heading upwards) Has the highest EBITDA margin (68.2%) among telcos globally. Consumer uptake is at a snail's pace with only 40K net additions in the last 12 months.  12.3 Mn customers ready to connect  8.56 Mn are active (30% idle network) 6.64 Mn (78.2%) users are on <= 50 Mbps 2 Mn (24.2%) users < 50 Mbps, 4.52 Mn users on 50 Mbps 1.83 Mn (20.7%) users are on >= 100 Mbps (risen by 2%) 6.6 Mn premises ready for Ultrafast (incl 2.5 Mn on HFC) Poor uptake – only 50-60K has upgraded In all 1.83 Mn users are using Ultrafast (>=100 Mbps) internet. Facing heat from Starlink and 5G providers in remote areas Starlink In Australia > 120K subscribers Sky Muster has declined from 108K to 96.1K In the Enterprise 35K EE SIOs are active.  It seeks to improve its top and bottom lin...

 Telecom Industry Evolution - 1990 to 2023 elecTelecom Industry Operating Model Evolution - 1990 to 2023 From Linear to Agile Telecom Industry Performance -2023  Telecom Industry Growth - Spectrum  Organic and Inorganic Telecom Industry - Todays Setup and Building Blocks 

Key Trends and Message from A T&T Results from Mar 2022 Monthly consumption at is accelerating from 900 gigabytes to nearly a terabyte today. We are consuming roughly 30x more data in our homes than we are on the go with our smartphones.  Homes are getting smarter and they're becoming more demanding environments where flawless, high-quality broadband is required. Our home has become a work environment. The average household today has 13 devices, and that's expected to triple by 2025. Enterprises are managing a multi-cloud environment, they require more low latency and secure bandwidth. Fibre is economical and superior therefore consumption over wireless is used for high-value mobile applications.   IoT connectivity is growing 18% year-over-year. The next wave of digital transformation is being driven by cloud, AI and connected sensors. Data growth is exploding post covid driven by hybrid arrangement, pent-up demand and everything digital. Fibre is not only economical ...