The Transforming Battleground: AI in India-Pakistan Military Dynamics

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is fundamentally altering the landscape of modern warfare, and the enduring rivalry between India and Pakistan, characterised by frequent tensions along the Line of Control (LoC) and a history of armed conflicts, is no exception. As both nations progressively integrate AI into their respective military structures, spanning the army, navy, air force, and space domains, the very semantics of the battleground are evolving, carrying significant implications for strategic stability in the South Asian region. This analysis delves into how AI is reshaping military capabilities, assesses the current balance of power in this technological domain, and evaluates how AI could potentially tilt this balance, drawing upon recent developments and insights from expert analyses.

India's Foray into AI Advancements

India has demonstrated significant progress in the integration of AI into its defence apparatus, fueled by an annual budget of $12 million allocated to the Defence AI Project Agency (DAIPA) and the Defence Artificial Intelligence Council (DAIC). The 2022 ‘AI in Defence’ symposium served as a showcase for 75 domestically developed AI products, encompassing autonomous drones and sophisticated cybersecurity tools. Furthermore, India’s “Make in India” initiative actively encourages collaboration between public and private sector entities, thereby bolstering the nation's self-reliance in critical technologies.

Pakistan's Endeavours in AI

In contrast, Pakistan's advancements in military AI lag behind, evidenced by a comparatively minimal AI military expenditure ($1.67 million in 2018 for the National Centre of Robotics and Automation). Nevertheless, the establishment of the Pakistan Air Force’s Centre for Artificial Intelligence and Computing (CENTAIC, 2020) and the Army’s Centre of Emerging Technologies (2022) underscores a focused effort on leveraging AI for cybersecurity enhancements and predictive analytics capabilities. It is noteworthy that Pakistan’s AI development trajectory exhibits a greater reliance on partnerships with China rather than indigenous innovation.

AI's Impact Across Military Domains

Army

India: The Indian Army has deployed an impressive array of 140 AI-based surveillance systems along its borders with Pakistan and China. These systems seamlessly integrate high-resolution cameras, advanced radar technology, and Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) feeds to provide real-time intrusion detection capabilities. The 2021 Dakshin Shakti military exercise provided a demonstration of AI-enabled swarm drone technology, featuring 75 units capable of targeting nuclear delivery systems, significantly enhancing situational awareness on the battlefield. Additionally, AI plays a crucial role in optimising logistical operations and enabling predictive maintenance for military equipment, thereby reducing operational downtime and enhancing efficiency.

Pakistan: The Pakistan Army is utilising AI primarily for bolstering cybersecurity measures within its Cyber Command and has explored its potential in automated threat identification. However, the practical implementation of AI within its army remains limited, with no reported large-scale deployment of AI-driven surveillance or autonomous systems. The current focus appears to be on conventional military upgrades, exemplified by the Burraq drone, which lacks advanced AI integration.

Edge: India currently holds a clear advantage in army applications of AI, owing to its robust AI-powered surveillance infrastructure, the deployment of sophisticated swarm drone technology, and data-driven logistical optimisation. These advancements enable faster decision-making processes and significantly reduce the risk to human personnel along the volatile Loc.

Navy

India: The Indian Navy is actively leveraging AI to enhance its maritime domain awareness, with 30 AI-focused projects underway in 2022 and plans for an additional 25 by 2024. The Indigenous Maritime Situational Awareness System (IMSAS), developed in collaboration with CAIR and Bharat Electronics, employs AI to facilitate real-time command and control operations. Furthermore, AI-driven predictive maintenance systems are enhancing the readiness of the naval fleet, a critical factor in maintaining dominance in the strategically important Indian Ocean Region (IOR).

Pakistan: The Pakistan Navy has integrated Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS), such as the LUNA NG UAVs, for Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) purposes. However, the application of AI within its naval operations is still in its nascent stages. While joint military exercises with China suggest potential access to AI-enhanced platforms, Pakistan’s indigenous capabilities in this domain remain limited.

Edge: India's more advanced AI projects and its significantly larger naval fleet (293 vessels compared to Pakistan’s 121) provide it with superior maritime surveillance capabilities and enhanced operational efficiency, thereby solidifying its dominance in the Indian Ocean Region.

Air Force

India: The Indian Air Force’s Centre of Excellence for AI (CoEAI), located at Rajokri, is spearheading the development of UAV and autonomous systems. AI is also being utilised to enhance mission planning capabilities, with its benefits extending to India’s substantial fleet of 513 fighter aircraft and 899 helicopters through predictive analytics. The 2025 ‘Aakraman’ military exercise showcased the effectiveness of AI-driven coordination in aerial operations, further bolstering India’s air dominance.

Pakistan: The Pakistan Air Force’s CENTAIC is primarily focused on Cognitive Electronic Warfare (CEW), employing AI for predictive analytics and real-time tactical decision-making. While CEW may have been utilised during Operation Swift Retort in 2019, the scale of its application is potentially limited by Pakistan’s smaller air fleet, comprising 328 fighter aircraft and 373 helicopters.

Edge: India’s larger and more technologically advanced air fleet, coupled with AI-driven mission planning and the dedicated efforts of the CoEAI, provides it with both a technological and numerical advantage in the air domain. However, Pakistan’s focus on CEW demonstrates tactical innovation in specific areas.

Space

India: India’s space program, spearheaded by ISRO, includes a constellation of 22 satellites (e.g., IRNSS, RISAT) that provide crucial support for navigation and ISR activities. The DRDO’s successful Anti-Satellite (ASAT) test and the development of AI-driven space situational awareness capabilities further enhance India’s strategic posture. Moreover, the development of minisatellites and laser-based sensors for military applications is underway.

Pakistan: Pakistan operates a limited number of six low-grade satellites and exhibits a significant reliance on Chinese technology in its space program. Critically, its space program currently lacks significant AI integration or dedicated military-specific assets, thereby limiting its strategic reach and capabilities in this crucial domain.

Edge: India’s advanced satellite network and its integration of AI for enhanced space security provide it with a decisive advantage in the space domain. This superiority is critical for maintaining robust communication and ISR capabilities, particularly in the context of potential conflicts.

Battleground Semantics: AI's Transformative Influence

AI is revolutionising the fundamental dynamics of the battleground by introducing unprecedented levels of speed, precision, and autonomy:

Real-Time Decision-Making: India’s AI-powered systems significantly reduce the sensor-to-shooter loop, a critical advantage in the fast-paced skirmishes that often occur along the LoC. Pakistan’s comparatively slower adoption of AI limits its capacity for rapid and effective responses.

Autonomous Systems: India’s deployment of swarm drones and autonomous vehicles minimises the exposure of human personnel to direct combat risks, while Pakistan’s continued reliance on manned systems inherently involves greater risks.

Cyber Warfare: India’s well-established Cyber Command, bolstered by AI-driven cybersecurity tools, currently outpaces Pakistan’s Cyber Crime Wing, which relies on Chinese-developed software. In the event of a cyber conflict, India would likely hold a significant advantage.

Nuclear Risk: The potential for AI misinterpretations, particularly in the context of autonomous weapon systems (AWS), carries the grave risk of escalating conventional conflicts to nuclear levels. This is a significant concern given that both India and Pakistan possess nuclear arsenals.

The stability-instability paradox is a critical consideration in this context: while AI may enhance conventional deterrence capabilities, it also introduces the risk of heightened crisis instability if AWS make erroneous calculations, especially in scenarios involving nuclear-capable assets.

Assessing the Balance of Power

India's Key Advantages:

• Scale and Resources: India’s substantial defence budget of $75 billion (compared to Pakistan’s $7.64 billion) and its significant foreign reserves of $627 billion (compared to Pakistan’s $13.7 billion) provide a much larger financial foundation for investment in advanced AI technologies.
• Technological Superiority: The deployment of 140 AI-powered surveillance systems, advanced swarm drone technology, and a constellation of 22 satellites provides India with unparalleled ISR and coordination capabilities across all military domains.
• Collaborative Ecosystem: Strategic partnerships with major technology firms like Microsoft ($3 billion investment in data centres), robust collaborations with academic institutions, and active engagement with innovative startups under the DAIPA framework are fostering a dynamic environment for AI innovation in the defence sector.

Pakistan's Key Strengths:

• Tactical Innovation: The Pakistan Air Force’s CENTAIC demonstrates a focus on niche AI applications, particularly in Cognitive Electronic Warfare, and joint military exercises with China provide exposure to advanced AI platforms.
• Asymmetric Focus: Pakistan’s strategic reliance on drone technology like the Burraq and a larger inventory of mobile artillery (600 units compared to India’s 264) aligns with its defensive military strategy.
• Chinese Support: Access to Chinese AI platforms and technologies helps to partially offset Pakistan’s limitations in indigenous AI development.

Verdict: Based on the current assessment, India holds a decisive edge in the integration of AI into its military apparatus. This advantage is primarily attributed to its larger overall military capacity (2.52 million paramilitary personnel compared to Pakistan’s 500,000), its more advanced AI infrastructure across all military domains, and its superior space capabilities. While Pakistan’s progress in specific tactical applications of AI and its strategic partnerships is noteworthy, its overall AI development is constrained by limited resources and a greater reliance on foreign technology.

India’s 2047 Vision: Charting the Course to High-Income Status

Introduction

As India nears its 75th year of independence in 2022, it has set its sights on a lofty ambition: achieving high-income status by 2047, its centenary of liberation from British rule. This goal embodies India’s resolve to reshape its economic landscape and elevate living standards for its 1.4 billion people. Yet, the journey ahead is riddled with economic, social, political, and demographic hurdles.

A recent World Bank report, released on April 10, 2025, underscores the scale of the challenge: India must maintain an average annual growth rate of 7.8% over the next two decades to reach high-income status—almost 1.5 percentage points above its current pace. This article delves into the multifaceted obstacles India faces, explores viable pathways by comparing the Chinese and Japanese growth models, and assesses what lies ahead for the world’s most populous nation.

The Economic Mountain to Climb

The Growth Imperative

India’s gross national income (GNI) per capita was £2,540 in 2023, according to the World Bank. To breach the high-income threshold of £20,000 by 2047, it requires an eightfold increase. Currently, India is the fastest-growing major economy, with a projected growth rate of 6.4% for the fiscal year ending 2025, the weakest since the pandemic. This falls well short of the sustained 7.8% needed, a gap highlighted as India prepares to release its latest quarterly GDP figures.

The Three Pillars of Transformation

The World Bank pinpoints three essential drivers for India’s growth:

• Capital Investment: Robust infrastructure is vital to underpin a £20 trillion economy. Initiatives like PM Gati Shakti aim to bolster logistics efficiency and lift India’s global competitiveness rankings.
• Labour Reforms: India’s demographic dividend—where its working-age population outstrips dependents—is a fleeting advantage. The dependency ratio is set to climb from 45% in 2032 to 49% by 2050, pressing the need for labour market reforms.
• Productivity Gains: Shifting from low-value industries to high-tech manufacturing and services is crucial, echoing the trajectories of advanced economies.

The Middle-Income Trap

India risks falling into the “middle-income trap,” where economies stagnate after reaching upper-middle-income status. Countries like Brazil, Malaysia, Mexico, and South Africa have languished here for over two decades, stymied by structural inefficiencies and weak reforms. India is on course to hit upper-middle-income status by 2032, but the leap to high-income status demands a rare, sustained sprint—achieved by only a few, such as South Korea, in under 20 years.

Demographic Dividend or Disaster?

A Closing Window of Opportunity

India’s demographic edge—where workers outnumber dependents—offers a potential boost. However, this window is narrowing. With the dependency ratio poised to rise post-2032, India has roughly a decade to harness this advantage.

Labour Force Participation Challenges

Boosting labour force participation, especially among women, is a pressing issue. India’s female participation rate hovers at around 23%, lagging far behind China’s 61% and Japan’s 53%. This gap is both a challenge and a vast untapped resource.

Skills Mismatch

Despite churning out millions of graduates yearly, India faces a skills gap. Less than 50% of graduates are deemed employable by industry standards, hampering economic potential.

Political and Governance Considerations

Policy Continuity and Implementation

India’s federal system, while democratic, can slow policy rollouts. Achieving the 2047 vision hinges on consistent policies across governments and seamless execution at the central and state levels.

Institutional Capacity

Enhancing institutional strength and cutting red tape are critical. The efficiency of regulators, courts, and public services will shape India’s growth trajectory.

Corruption and Transparency

India has made progress against corruption, but greater transparency is key to attracting investment and optimising resources.

Learning from Asian Success Stories: China and Japan

The Chinese Model: Speed and Scale

Strengths:

• State-led investment in infrastructure and manufacturing
• Export-driven growth
• Rapid urbanisation and industrialisation
• Centralised planning and execution

Limitations:

• Rising inequality
• Environmental damage
• Restricted freedoms
• An ageing population from the one-child policy

China vaulted from low to upper-middle-income status in three decades, lifting millions from poverty through infrastructure, exports, and top-down coordination.

The Japanese Model: Quality and Innovation

Strengths:

• High-quality manufacturing and exports
• Heavy investment in education and skills
• Robust corporate governance
• Technological prowess

Limitations:

• Ageing population
• Deflationary pressures
• Corporate inflexibility
• Resistance to immigration

Japan’s post-war boom made it the world’s second-largest economy by the 1980s, driven by quality, innovation, and government-business synergy.

India’s Pathway: A Hybrid Approach

India must blend elements from both models, tailored to its context:

• From China: Infrastructure investment, manufacturing scale, export focus, and urban planning.
• From Japan: Quality emphasis, human capital development, and governance standards.

India’s Unique Strengths:

• Democratic stability
• English proficiency
• Strong IT and services sector
• Youthful population

The Road to 2047: Key Priorities

Economic Priorities

• Industrial Policy Reform: Simplify regulations and incentivise high-value manufacturing.
• Financial Sector Deepening: Broaden capital access for SMEs and startups.
• Energy Transition: Balance growth with sustainability.
• Digital Infrastructure: Use tech to bypass traditional barriers.

Social Priorities

• Education Overhaul: Align schooling with future job needs.
• Healthcare Access: Expand affordable care to strengthen human capital.
• Social Security: Build systems for an ageing post-dividend population.
• Urbanisation Management: Develop sustainable, productive cities.

Political Priorities

• Centre-State Cooperation: Align federal efforts with national goals.
• Global Positioning: Navigate geopolitical tensions to secure trade and investment.
• Institutional Strengthening: Bolster capacity for policy delivery.

Conclusion

India’s 2047 vision is a bold bid to reshape its future and the global economy. Jumping from £2,540 to £20,000 GNI per capita demands not just growth, but a transformation of economic, governance, and social frameworks.

China and Japan offer lessons, yet India must carve its own path—one blending rapid growth with democracy, sustainability, and inclusion. The next two decades will reveal whether India can break the middle-income trap that has ensnared many peers. With astute policies, effective execution, and adaptability to global shifts, India’s centenary could herald its rise as a high-income nation—but time is short, and the stakes are immense.