Strategic Foresight - Insights in Business and Technology

How DeepSeek's Challenge Actually Strengthened NVIDIA's Market Position The emergence of DeepSeek, a Chinese AI startup, initially sent shockwaves through the market, raising fears of disruption to NVIDIA's dominance in the AI chip market. DeepSeek's claim of developing an advanced AI model with significantly lower computing costs triggered a sharp market correction, wiping out nearly $750 billion from NVIDIA's market capitalization in a week. However, this seemingly negative event has, paradoxically, strengthened NVIDIA's long-term market position.     The Initial Shock and the Correction: The initial market reaction was swift and decisive, with NVIDIA's stock price dropping by 6% while the Nasdaq remained relatively flat. This correction, while painful in the short term, has resulted in a more attractive valuation for NVIDIA. The forward P/E ratio has compressed from a lofty 40x six months ago to a more reasonable 32x. This reset makes NVIDIA more appea...

Deep Seek's GPU Infrastructure Initially acquired 10,000 GPUs in 2021 Estimated to have grown to around 50,000 GPUs in total Used 2,000 H800 GPUs specifically for V3 model pre-training Share infrastructure with their quantitative trading fund operations Initial Export Control Framework US government initially restricted two parameters : Computing power (FLOPS) Interconnect bandwidth between GPUs This two-factor restriction created an opportunity for optimisation H800 GPU Restrictions and Adaptations H800 was China's version of the H100 GPU Two key restriction factors from the US government: Chip compute (FLOPS) Interconnect bandwidth H800 was designed with: Full FLOPS capability (same as H100) Restricted interconnect bandwidth Deep Seek developed specialized SM (Streaming Multiprocessor) scheduling techniques to work around interconnect limitations Managed to achieve full GPU utilisation despite interconnect restrictions Export Control Evolution First Phase: Dual restric...

Gen AI The New Reality - How Key Players Are Progressing About the Book  In the rapidly evolving realm of Generative AI, this book delves into the intricacies of this transformative technology, exploring its history, potential, and key players. It unravels the value chain, deployment models, and future trajectory of Large Language Models (LLMs) while shedding light on the growth opportunities in this domain. Embark on a journey through the world of chipmakers, where TSMC reigns supreme, pioneering the most advanced chips, yet facing its unique challenges. Discover the driving forces behind Nvidia's dominance as the "Godfather of AI" and analyse the potential for a dot-com bubble resurgence. Venture into the realm of Hyperscalers, where Microsoft stands as the undisputed king of AI in the cloud and software. Explore its strategic partnerships, the economics of training AI systems, and the inherent risks associated with its growth. Delve into the world of Google, the sear...

The Future of Software is New SaaS - powered by Services, AI Agents, Sharing This POV is available for download below.