Strategic Foresight - Insights in Business and Technology

 Aussie Broadband's  (ABB) FY23 Results and Why it's Emerging as an Acquisition Target NBN Consumer 2019, 100K customers, unprofitable.  2023, 700K customers, NPAT of $37Mn. 65% of Revenue from the consumer segment. 12% of NBN customers are on >  $100/month plan and 40% of Aussie customers are in this segment. Aussie acquires more than half of all new high value subscribers to the NBN. Business & Govt Business segment grew by 8% to $90Mn Rev. EE is adding to margin growth >800 new deals – SMB is driving it  Both segments utilise wholly owned fibre and an internally built cloud platform to generate 50% GM against residential GM of 30%. As those segments grow, profits will disproportionately rise. Smallest telco to build its own fibre backhaul. Built in house software to manage data loads, billing and other core functions. Wholesale business offers white labelled telco services to 3rd parties like Origin, was its fastest growing segment and a genuine sur...

TPG Heading for a Challenging Future  HY23 Results - Key Takeaways - The merger with Vodafone was a necessary remedy to the NBN, but it hasn’t lived up to expectations. TPG’s plan for the Vodafone merger was to do what it has always done – cram lots of users through a fixed asset base to raise profits. It hasn’t worked out that way. Selling off the wholesale Fibre Business can be likened to relinquishing a fortress, where the installation of the fibre requires minimal capital and new customers translate to higher margins and earnings, with the capacity for expansion being remarkable. This decision can be interpreted as a demonstration of TPG's weakness, rather than one that emanates from a position of strength. The business cannot sustain an expensive multi-brand strategy as it shifts towards a pure RSP play. Hence abandoning it. The emerging trend of choosing Prepaid mobile over post-paid is reemphasised (MVNO Play). Post-paid ARPU increase primarily from price rise in Jan and Feb...

  NBN Co FY 23 Results - Key Takeaways  -- NBN Co’s Revenue has increased by 4% in FY23 and is facing headwinds for increasing the revenue.  CAGR stands at 8.7%. WACC - 3.18% (heading upwards) Has the highest EBITDA margin (68.2%) among telcos globally. Consumer uptake is at a snail's pace with only 40K net additions in the last 12 months.  12.3 Mn customers ready to connect  8.56 Mn are active (30% idle network) 6.64 Mn (78.2%) users are on <= 50 Mbps 2 Mn (24.2%) users < 50 Mbps, 4.52 Mn users on 50 Mbps 1.83 Mn (20.7%) users are on >= 100 Mbps (risen by 2%) 6.6 Mn premises ready for Ultrafast (incl 2.5 Mn on HFC) Poor uptake – only 50-60K has upgraded In all 1.83 Mn users are using Ultrafast (>=100 Mbps) internet. Facing heat from Starlink and 5G providers in remote areas Starlink In Australia > 120K subscribers Sky Muster has declined from 108K to 96.1K In the Enterprise 35K EE SIOs are active.  It seeks to improve its top and bottom lin...

Has Optus on Recovery Path from Cyber Security Attack    Quick Snapshot of the Performance:  Optus is facing multiple challenges, while it was trying to recover from the losses it suffered during the COVID, it was impacted by a data hacking issue in Sep 2022.   This incident has shrunk their brand equity, and customers have lost faith. Hence, 65K customers have churned; in particular, the Mobile business suffered at least in the short term. Optus have recovered from their loss of 65K in 1-2 quarters, which is not only surprising but commendable. It is worth pointing out that the price rise has assisted in cushioning the effect. Having said that, the data hack has impacted their brand equity and has further strained their finances and balance sheet.  Singtel board and exec team need to make a call if they can recover the brand equity or if it is time to rebrand or sell the business or increase its, MVNO or white label, share like Amaysim. Q3 FY23 Story f...