Strategic Foresight - Insights in Business and Technology

Analysing U.S. Tariffs Using Game Theory: Single-Run vs. Multiple-Run Dynamics Trump’s tariff strategy—highlighted by his April 2, 2025, “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariffs—can be analysed through these lenses: Single-Run Perspective Setup: The U.S. imposes tariffs (e.g., 20% on most countries, 60% on China) as a one-time move to force immediate compliance on issues like trade deficits, border security, or drug trafficking. Payoff: If other countries concede quickly (e.g., Canada and Mexico tightening borders), the U.S. wins short-term gains. If they retaliate (e.g., China’s counter-tariffs), both sides lose via higher costs and disrupted trade. Ambiguity’s Role: Trump’s vague goals—calling tariffs “beautiful” without clear endgames—create uncertainty. Other countries don’t know if the tariffs are permanent or a bluff, making it harder to calculate their best response. This could push them to overreact (retaliate) or underreact (concede prematurely). Multiple-Run Perspective Se...

The COVID-19 pandemic exposed America’s reliance on foreign supply chains, with chip shortages grinding industries to a halt. His response? A tariff tsunami to bring tech production home, shrink the $1 Tn US trade deficit (2024), and fortify the US as a tech superpower. This isn’t just about trade—it’s about keeping your Nvidia and Apple shares safe from China’s reach while ensuring AI and chip supremacy.   The US Economy: Tech Gains, Portfolio Pains The US, with its $28.6 Tn GDP in 2024, is bracing for impact as tariffs ripple through tech-heavy sectors. IT Services: The $1.3 Tn IT industry faces pricier imported hardware—servers, AI gear, you name it. Growth, forecast at 5.8% annually through 2030, could stall as costs climb, hitting your SaaS and cloud bets. Telecom: 5G rollout slows as tariffs jack up costs for Chinese and Mexican components. Verizon and AT&T might lose $50 Bn yearly in productivity—check your telecom holdings. Stock Market & Mag 7: The “Magnific...

  The AI Threat to Indian IT Services: Can TCS, Infosys, Wipro, and HCLTech Keep Up with Accenture and IBM? The Indian IT services industry, a global powerhouse valued at $199 billion in FY24, has long been the backbone of digital transformation for enterprises worldwide. Giants like Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Infosys, Wipro, and HCLTech have thrived by offering cost-effective, workforce-driven solutions. However, a seismic shift is underway, driven by artificial intelligence (AI), and it’s not just a technological evolution—it’s a competitive threat. Industry leaders Accenture and IBM are setting the pace in the AI services space, leveraging bold strategies and substantial investments, while Indian IT firms scramble to adapt. With Accenture’s latest earnings report showing a 5.8% revenue dip in Q2 2025 amid US policy shifts, the stakes are higher than ever. Here’s how this battle is unfolding and what it means for the future. The AI Juggernauts: Accenture and IBM Lead the Ch...

 MBA - Lesson -- Ever wondered what’s inside a company’s annual report and how to make sense of it? An annual report is like a company’s yearly “report card” that tells you how they’re doing financially and operationally. It’s a goldmine for investors, but it can seem overwhelming with all the numbers and jargon. Don’t worry—I’ll break it down into a simple 6-step framework inspired by Aswath Damodaran, a renowned finance expert, using layman’s terms and examples to help you understand. Step 1: Confirm the Timing and Currency What to Check: What time period does the report cover? What currency are the numbers in? Why It Matters: You need to know the “when” and “what” of the report to understand the context. Companies usually report their financials for a full year, from January to December 2024. The currency matters because if you’re in the U.S. but the company reports in euros, you’ll need to convert to compare apples to apples. Example: Let’s say you’re looking at Apple...

The Four Horsemen of AI Warfare: Why Palantir, Axon, Cloudflare, and CrowdStrike Are Reshaping Global Security The future of warfare isn't coming; it's already here, and it's powered by artificial intelligence. Forget tanks and fighter jets – the real battleground is digital, and four companies are leading the charge: Palantir, Axon, Cloudflare and CrowdStrike. They're not just participating in the AI arms race; they're defining it. 1. Palantir: Owning the Intelligence Backbone Why it Matters: Palantir isn't just selling software; it's embedding its AI-powered platforms like Gotham and Foundry into the very fabric of military and intelligence operations. From Project Maven's battlefield intelligence to the Space Force's satellite analytics, Palantir is the architect of AI-driven decision-making in high-stakes environments. For the Enterprise and AI: Palantir's AIP is rapidly becoming the standard operating system for enterprise AI. It offers ...

Agentic AI—systems capable of acting independently to achieve goals—stands at a pivotal juncture, reshaping how enterprises operate and compete. Few thinkers are better positioned to guide us through this shift than Daron Acemoglu, the MIT economist whose groundbreaking work on institutions, technology, and prosperity earned him the 2024 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. In a recent provocative piece, Acemoglu presents a binary hypothesis on agentic AI’s future, framing it as a choice between a strategic advisor enhancing human decisions and an autonomous decision-maker steering the ship. This blog traces his background, unpacks his hypothesis chronologically, and expands into a practical roadmap for organisations, covering why it matters, actionable steps, and implications for IT services and products. Let’s dive in.     Background: Who Is Daron Acemoglu? Born on September 3, 1967, in Istanbul, Turkey, Daron Acemoglu is a titan in modern economics. After earning h...

Superloop vs. Aussie Broadband: Financial Performance and Growth Strategies Superloop vs Aussie Broadband Parameter Superloop Aussie Broadband Revenue FY23: $323M (192% growth from FY21); H1 FY24: $197.6M (+32.7% YoY) FY23: $854.9M (144% growth from FY21); H1 FY24: $445.9M (+17.7% YoY) EBITDA FY23: $33–36M (+82.2% from FY21); H1 FY24: $23M (+83% YoY); FY24 Guidance: $51–53M FY23: $91.7M (from $34.8M in FY21); H1 FY24: $46.3M (+12.7% YoY); FY24 Guidance: $116–121M Free Cash Flow (FCF) FCF-positive in H2 FY23; H1 FY24 operating cash flow doubled Strong cash flow in H1 FY24, supporting Symbio deal; specific FCF not detailed Gearing Ratio Low; net debt $13.3M, $49M undrawn capacity Manageable; increased by $262M Symbio deal, offset by $99.8M Superloop share sale ...