Strategic Foresight - Insights in Business and Technology

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is no longer a distant promise—it’s a transformative force reshaping our world. As we stand at this technological inflection point, the path forward demands careful consideration of how we govern, develop, and deploy AI. Drawing from a comprehensive analysis of AI’s trajectory, this post explores five critical themes: oversight of AGI labs, targeted regulation versus deregulation, the accelerating pace of AI progress, the open source AI debate, and the potential for AI-driven institutional regime changes. Each theme is unpacked with real-world use cases, benefits, and challenges to provide a balanced perspective on navigating the AI frontier. 1. Oversight of AGI Labs: A Prudent Step for National Security Theme Overview: Close monitoring of frontier AI labs developing Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is essential, particularly for national security. Using compute thresholds to identify labs for safety testing and disclosures offers a light-touch, targe...

Comparing Three Defining Economic Crises of 2008, 2020 and 2025 Analysis and Insights Nature and Triggers: Distinct Origins 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC): A systemic financial failure rooted in over-leveraged institutions and subprime mortgage defaults, leading to a credit freeze. The trigger was the collapse of Lehman Brothers (September 2008) , exposing the fragility of the financial system. 2020 COVID-19 Crisis: A health-driven economic shock caused by a global pandemic, resulting in widespread business closures and supply chain disruptions. The trigger was the discovery of significant COVID-19 cases in Italy (February 2020) , signaling its global reach and severity. 2025 Tariff Crisis (In Process): A policy-induced trade disruption stemming from newly imposed tariffs, leading to global trade barriers and economic uncertainty. The trigger was the announcement of Trump Tariffs (April 2025) , initiating a wave of trade policy changes and retaliatory actions. Marke...

Introduction As India nears its 75th year of independence in 2022, it has set its sights on a lofty ambition: achieving high-income status by 2047, its centenary of liberation from British rule. This goal embodies India’s resolve to reshape its economic landscape and elevate living standards for its 1.4 billion people. Yet, the journey ahead is riddled with economic, social, political, and demographic hurdles. A recent World Bank report, released on April 10, 2025, underscores the scale of the challenge: India must maintain an average annual growth rate of 7.8% over the next two decades to reach high-income status—almost 1.5 percentage points above its current pace. This article delves into the multifaceted obstacles India faces, explores viable pathways by comparing the Chinese and Japanese growth models, and assesses what lies ahead for the world’s most populous nation. The Economic Mountain to Climb The Growth Imperative India’s gross national income (GNI) per capita was £2,540 in 2...