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Saturday, March 15, 2025

Superloop on track to 1Bn Rev by 2028

Superloops Growth Strategy Analysis

Superloop employs a balanced growth strategy combining organic expansion and strategic acquisitions, with current emphasis shifting toward organic scaling

Growth Strategy Breakdown

Strategy Type Components Examples/Evidence Impact
Organic Growth (Primary Driver) - Customer acquisition (+62.6% YoY) - Market share gains (nbn up to 6.3%) - Product innovation (FTTP contracts, higher ARPU plans) - Wholesale partnerships (Origin, Leaptel)
 - 37,000 net new Consumer customers in HY25
- 30.6% organic revenue growth
- $20M marketing investment (FY22-FY23) 
Accounts for ~70% of recent growth
Inorganic Growth (Strategic Supplement) - Targeted acquisitions (Exetel, Uecomm)
- Uecomm acquisition adds 2,000km fibre
- Origin migration: 130k customers
- Exetel synergies ($5M+/year) 
Accelerates infrastructure/customer base growth

Path to $1 Billion Revenue

Current Baseline (HY25):

• Half-Year Revenue: $258.1M 

• Annualized Run Rate: $516.2M

• Growth Rate: 30.6% YoY (organic)

Projections:

Scenario   Formula  Result  Timeline

Organic Only
  $516.2M x (1.306)^n   $1.15B   2028

With Acquisitions
 
  Add $50-100M/year from M&A 
 
   $1B+
 
  FY27 (2027) 

Key Variables:

• Uecomm Acquisition: Adds fibre assets (revenue contribution TBA) 

• New Contracts: Leaptel ($4-5M/3yrs), AV Jennings/Resimax FTTP deals

• Guidance: "Double Down" strategy targets 2x size by FY26, implying ~$800M revenue organically by 2026.

Strategic Catalysts

  1. Operating Leverage:

    • EBITDA margins improved to 14.8% (HY25) vs. 10.4% (HY24)

    • Capex discipline: $15M HY25 reinvestment vs. $38.2M EBITDA

  2. Market Trends:

    • Challenger brands now hold 19.8% nbn share

    • Consumer migration to higher-margin plans (ARPU growth)

  3. M&A Potential:

    • $10.9M net cash position supports accretive deals

    • Focus on EBITDA-positive targets (e.g., Uecomm closes March 2025)

Risks & Considerations

• NPAT Drag: D&A from past acquisitions ($39.1M HY25) delays profitability until FY26

• Customer Concentration: Origin partnership contributes ~20% of HY25 Wholesale revenue 

• Competition: TPG/Vocus aggressively pursuing the same challenger-brand market

Superloop's hybrid model positions it to reach $1B revenue by 2027-2028, with upside potential from strategic M&A accelerating this timeline.

Comparison with Aussie Broadband

MetricAussie BroadbandSuperloop
Revenue$588.5 million$258.1 million
Revenue Growth6.80%30.60%
Underlying EBITDA$65.8 million$38.2 million
EBITDA Growth8.90%66.20%
Net Profit/(Loss)$12.16 million($7.8 million)
Gross Margin$217.6 million$88.0 million
Gross Margin %7.50%28.00%
Customer Base727,951 (broadband)664,000
Customer Growth12.50%62.60%


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