Strategic Foresight - Insights in Business and Technology

Telstra Network Paradox: Growth Trap: More network → More customers → More usage → More capex.  Returns Impact: Historically subpar ROC (5-6%) due to continuous investment needs. Future:  10% ROIC by 2030 is highly ambitious 5G Network Evolution Higher frequency bands require denser base station networks.  Fixed mobile internet growth (NBN competitor) increases infrastructure demand. Hypothesis:  Telstra’s competitive advantage in network quality requires sustained high capex, limiting FCF and shareholder returns. Capex: 16.5% × $23Bn revenue = $3.8Bn annually.  FCF Under The Hood Current EBIT: $3.8Bn  Capex Intensity: 16-17% of revenues  ~$23Bn revenue, so capex ≈ $3.7-3.9Bn.  Depreciation & Amortisation: ~$2.5Bn (typical for telcos). Taxes: $3.8Bn × 30% = $1.14Bn.  FCF = EBIT + Depreciation - Taxes - Capex – WC FCF = $3.8Bn + $2.5Bn - $1.14Bn - $3.8Bn - $0 (stable)  ≈ $1.36Bn. FCF Yield = $1.36Bn / $75Bn   ≈ 1.8% (low, r...

  Introduction: The AI Revolution Redefining Global Business Artificial Intelligence (AI) is reshaping business landscapes from Silicon Valley to Singapore, Mumbai to Melbourne. McKinsey forecasts AI could inject $13 Tn into global GDP by 2030, but Gartner warns 85% of AI projects fail due to misaligned strategy or ethical oversights. From America's tech giants to India's fintech innovators and Australia's mining companies, organisations are under immense pressure to harness AI's transformative potential. The key differentiator? Success isn't about bolting AI onto operations like another software tool; it's about treating AI as intellectual offspring that requires nurturing, guidance, and respect. Pedro Uria-Recio's comprehensive analysis of AI's evolution, from early automation to today's generative models, reveals its power to either transform or disrupt, depending on our approach. Meanwhile, Competing in the Age of AI by Marco Iansiti and Karim ...