Strategic Foresight - Insights in Business and Technology

The Value Chain for Generative AI (Artificial Intelligence) Response from ChatGPT (Generative AI Tool) -- The value chain for Generative AI (Artificial Intelligence) involves a series of activities and processes that create, deliver, and capture value through the development, deployment, and utilization of generative AI technologies. Here's a simplified overview of the generative AI value chain: Research and Development (R&D): This is where the foundational work on generative AI takes place. Researchers and data scientists work on developing algorithms, models, and techniques for generative AI. This includes areas such as neural networks, deep learning, and reinforcement learning. Data Collection and Preparation: High-quality data is crucial for training generative AI models. This step involves sourcing, cleaning, and preparing datasets that the AI models will learn from. Data collection can involve structured data, unstructured data, or a combination of both. Model Train...

My Quick Framework for Validating if the Business Is Growing   Key Message This 2x2 matrix is plotted to identify if the business is growing organically. X-Axis has Revenue Contribution which is the additional contribution from the previous comparison (like year or qtr) Y-Axis X has EBITDA Contribution which is the additional contribution from the previous comparison (like year or qtr) Meaning of Each Quadrant Black Hole In essence, when both contributions exhibit a downward trend, it can be inferred that the enterprise is undergoing a decline in terms of expansion and stability. Sinking & Milking When the contribution to revenue is declining, but the contribution to EBITDA is growing, the business is still able to increase its EBITDA contribution despite shrinking. In other words, it is extracting more margin from a declining entity Stressed Growth When revenue contribution increases while EBITDA contribution decreases, it indicates that the business is growing, ...

 India and China's - Game of Thrones via Economic and Political Lens Indias Conundrum India is playing its part in the BRICS because of the following India's trust in China has eroded due to 4 skirmishes at the Northern Border. India is wary of China's growing clout in the new world order. While BRICS is economically China-centric, it is ensuring that it doesn't become a Unipolar bloc in Asia and another India-bashing group like OIC used to be. India can no longer rely on Russia as it has been forced to become China's ally because of sanctions. By consenting to an expansion, it is mounting pressure on China and other relevant parties to acknowledge its deserving position in the UN's Permanent Five + Group and refrain from raising objections. Besides India's trade deficit with the New BRICS being around 69%, prompting a need for effective management. In response, India is seeking to promote the use of local currency in trade transactions, thereby reducing its...

TPG Heading for a Challenging Future  HY23 Results - Key Takeaways - The merger with Vodafone was a necessary remedy to the NBN, but it hasn’t lived up to expectations. TPG’s plan for the Vodafone merger was to do what it has always done – cram lots of users through a fixed asset base to raise profits. It hasn’t worked out that way. Selling off the wholesale Fibre Business can be likened to relinquishing a fortress, where the installation of the fibre requires minimal capital and new customers translate to higher margins and earnings, with the capacity for expansion being remarkable. This decision can be interpreted as a demonstration of TPG's weakness, rather than one that emanates from a position of strength. The business cannot sustain an expensive multi-brand strategy as it shifts towards a pure RSP play. Hence abandoning it. The emerging trend of choosing Prepaid mobile over post-paid is reemphasised (MVNO Play). Post-paid ARPU increase primarily from price rise in Jan and Feb...

Brand value and positioning changes in Australia.  Optus suffered from a data security incident in 2022, while Retailers dominate the top 10 and Auspost ranks surprisingly low.  The value of a brand can be calculated from a company's balance sheet and has a significant impact on its financial success. Here are the brand equities of the top telecom players worldwide.   My post on the future of global Telecom and IT players gives good insight. Source: Roy Morgan Comms Day

Australian Economic Outlook FY2024  The Australian Economy is Strong and Stable.  GDP is to grow by 1.4% and will accelerate in 2025.  Interest Rates will head southwards in Q2. Commodity, Minerals, Tourism and Education driving the growth.

  NBN Co FY 23 Results - Key Takeaways  -- NBN Co’s Revenue has increased by 4% in FY23 and is facing headwinds for increasing the revenue.  CAGR stands at 8.7%. WACC - 3.18% (heading upwards) Has the highest EBITDA margin (68.2%) among telcos globally. Consumer uptake is at a snail's pace with only 40K net additions in the last 12 months.  12.3 Mn customers ready to connect  8.56 Mn are active (30% idle network) 6.64 Mn (78.2%) users are on <= 50 Mbps 2 Mn (24.2%) users < 50 Mbps, 4.52 Mn users on 50 Mbps 1.83 Mn (20.7%) users are on >= 100 Mbps (risen by 2%) 6.6 Mn premises ready for Ultrafast (incl 2.5 Mn on HFC) Poor uptake – only 50-60K has upgraded In all 1.83 Mn users are using Ultrafast (>=100 Mbps) internet. Facing heat from Starlink and 5G providers in remote areas Starlink In Australia > 120K subscribers Sky Muster has declined from 108K to 96.1K In the Enterprise 35K EE SIOs are active.  It seeks to improve its top and bottom lin...

How Energy and Utilities Can Transform Response from GenAI tool ChatGPT: -- The transformation of the energy and utilities sector is a complex and ongoing process driven by technological advancements, environmental concerns, changing consumer expectations, and regulatory changes. This transformation is often referred to as the "energy transition" or "utility transformation." Here are some key ways in which the energy and utilities sector can transform: Transition to Renewable Energy : One of the most significant transformations in the energy sector is the shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources like solar, wind, and hydropower. This transition reduces greenhouse gas emissions and promotes sustainability. Decentralisation: Traditional energy systems were centralized, with power generated at large power plants and distributed through a grid. The future of energy includes more decentralized systems, where individual homes and businesses generate their ow...

Exploring the Digital Services Landscape and Opportunities for the Telecom Industry in Australia . Consumer: Financial Services across Insurance, e-commerce and Fintech have an addressable market of > $100 Bn and Telcos are eager to increase their wallet share to the mid-20s.  Enterprise:  The potential for growth in areas like IoT and Smart places is immense, with minimal infrastructure investment required in comparison to 5G.   Private 5G and SD-WAN are currently in high demand across various industries including Mining, Tourism, Energy, Heathcote, and Supply Chain. These verticals are the focus due to their increasing need for advanced technological solutions. My previous post on IT Services Opportunity across the Telecom Industry   

Australia is Lagging in Internet Speed While Price is Going Up.  There are valuable takeaways from New Zealand's fibre optic infrastructure rollout, which boasts faster spee ds and more affordable pricing. Why Australia's Internet services are so expensive compared to other countries. A quick Big Mac Index test reveals why What the Industry Experts Paul Budde, John de Ridder and Bob James are saying  about why Australia is Lagging.  Source: Comms day The NBN Pricing Construct by Tony Eyers is a worthy read to view the four-tiered structure.   AVC - Connection Cost  CVC - Bandwidth or Capacity Cost POI - Connection Cost  POI - One-Off Set-up Fee      Snippet from the note below.  Source: TekTel 

Mapping of Tech Spend and Technology gives a good view of IT spending in 2023 Mapping of Digittal Services across Consumers and Enterprises gives a good view of Telecom spending in 2023 My Other Post on  -"Telecom Industry Australia - Where the Money will be spent in the next two to three years", can be read here .