Generative AI - Framework to Identify Use Case and Investment
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Salesforce Strategy in The Age of AI
Abstract With artificial intelligence, autonomous agents, and shifting dynamics, Salesforce serves as a key case study for how established s...
Friday, October 06, 2023
Generative AI - Framework to Identify Use Case and Investment
Tuesday, October 03, 2023
Palo Alto Networks - What is their Growth Template
Palo Alto Networks - Leader in Cyber Security
Key Indicators
- Market Cap – 73.07 Bn
- EV – 72.95 Bn
- Debt - $2.26Bn
- P/B – 41.79 (Goodwill from M&A)
- P/E (Trailing) – 184.99 (Growth)
- P/E (Forward) – 44.44 (Growth)
- Economic Moat: Wide (product, innovative)
- Palo Alto Network provides network security solutions. The company's solution offerings spread across network security, cloud-native application protection, security operations, and endpoint security and are available across multiple key industries.
- Cybersecurity has 5 stage lifecycle - Identify, Protect, Detect, Recover and Restore. This cyclical process is essential for protecting an organisation from cyber threats. It helps to ensure that corporations are constantly prepared and able to respond to evolving threats.
Dominating Growth Strategy
Since Nikesh Joined as CEO in 2018, Palo Alto Networks has grown with a CAGR of 24.9% with market cap. surging by $48Bn to $73.1Bn. This growth is spurred by M&A activity, improving the top line and ensuring it outpaces both competitors and potential security threats from hackers.
Palo Alto Networks has spent nearly $4Bn in acquiring 17 businesses, to form its Cortex and Prisma Cloud businesses, since its inception. The company has consistently demonstrated its commitment to driving integrated organic growth through mergers, acquisitions, and partnerships with several well-known startups. Time and again, the company has proven its capability to integrate these acquisitions to enhance or complement its own product offering.
There are various activities taking place beneath the surface, including incoming acquisitions through M&As and partnerships, as well as ongoing spin-offs initiated by former employees. The company boasts of notable start-ups that have been founded by its alumni.
The company strives to stay ahead of the competition by promoting a start-up culture internally and keeping a close watch externally for any potential opportunities. In the future, with Gen AI coming onto the centre stage it will focus on an AI and ML-centric acquisition that will have applications in cyber security.
The strategy of acquiring small and nimble players to ensure cutting-edge technology is available to its customers has proven effective. Nikesh, who has previously worked at Google, has adopted the same playbook from his former employer. However, due to the rise in short-term debt, the company's ability to generate FCF has decreased, making it difficult to pursue any big deals.
My other posts on Generative AI and Strategic Analysis of Key Players
- AI Value Chain
- Amazon the King of Retail -WhyAWS is the Crown Jewel
- Microsoft the King of AI in Software, Salesforce under the AI Cloud
- Tesla - It's not a Car, It's an AI Device on Wheels
- Google the King of Search - What the Future Beholds in the AI World
- Nvidia Godfather of AI - Why the Market is Bullish
- IBM - How it Lost Its Way
- Generative AI can transform Telecoms, Energy and Utilities
Monday, October 02, 2023
IBM a Tech Giant - How it Lost its Way
IBM a Tech Giant - How it Lost its Way
- Market Cap – $129.39Bn
- EV – $173.4Bn
- Debt - $57.5Bn, Cash - $17.9Bn
- P/B – 8.57
- P/E (Trailing) – 60.44 (Growth)
- P/E (Forward) – 14.3 (Div. Centric, No Growth)
- Economic Moat: Narrow (under threat)
Where is the Growth
How it Lost its Way
- IBM a more than 100-year-old company that used to be a trendsetter in the technology space has become a laggard and is struggling to get its Mojo back. It is facing headwinds, and it is not clear how it will modernise its business. Today, IBM has 3 business segments, Infrastructure, Software and Consulting, and all of them are declining YoY. There are multiple reasons why IBM's revenues are declining except for the minor surge in 2021, and 2022. Let's look at the key reasons.
- Unlike its peer group players like Salesforce and ServiceNow which specialises in providing packaged application software in the Cloud (SaaS), IBM has no application software to offer. Instead, IBM's software offering is primarily in system software, such as middleware, database management systems, and operating systems, that are used to build applications, but it has no end-user applications to offer. To add further, the issue with IBM's system software business is that it is increasingly moving towards open-source software, like how its other peer, Oracle is facing headwinds in the Database domain. IBM's Red Hat Enterprise Linux is built on open source and is cheaper than the company's legacy proprietary software.
- Microsoft, it's another peer, that competes with IBM in the Enterprise IT, has developed a mousetrap around Windows OS and its MS Office offering for both consumers and businesses. IBM, on the other hand, has no such product. Its other distant peer group players like Google and Meta, unlike IBM, earn most of its revenue from advertising.
- The IT spending in OPEX has been flat since the augment of Digital Transformation in the early 2010s. Most of the IT spending is CAPEX-centric for corporates to transform their businesses by rolling out customer-centric applications in the cloud and reducing the spending on system upgrades like Mainframes. In a way, the IT spending profile has significantly changed from being OPEX and IT-centric to CAPEX and business-driven. To add further, the Cloud first approach by businesses got a boost during the pandemic for resiliency and agility, ensuring that the likes of AWS and Microsoft extended their market share. In comparison, IBM has been relegated to a Cloud Consulting business where they help implement AWS, Azure and Google Cloud for their clients. This change is validated by IBM's Cloud market share decline from 25% in 2016 to 4% in 2022, indicating a lack of success in its effort to be a major player in this segment.
- IBM ventured into the AI industry during the early 2010s, introducing its Watson platform. However, the platform's performance was lacklustre, resulting in IBM selling its Watson Health initiative at a significant loss. The company is now making a fresh push into the market by relaunching Watson with the new name of watsonx, keeping in mind the current trend of Generation AI. IBM had previously rebranded its flagship database from DB2 to Db2 to rejuvenate it, but the move led to its downfall, especially among developers. IBM is now attempting a similar strategy with its AI offerings. It remains to be seen, whether rebranding will help IBM boost its AI efforts and achieve much-needed growth.
- During the mid-1990s, IBM decided to shift its focus from hardware manufacturing to the IT Managed Infrastructure Services sector, to drive growth in its software and consulting businesses by moving up the value chain. This strategic transition was necessary to meet the changing needs of customers who were moving away from mainframes and towards commodity hardware-enabled servers. However, in recent years, the IT Managed Infrastructure Services industry has experienced a decline due to the emergence of Hyperscalers and a change in IT spending. Today, most of IBM's original mainframe customers have shifted to the cloud or on-premise commodity hardware platforms for new application development, adding to the company's current challenge of finding ways to drive growth.
- IBM's IT Consulting segment has maintained a steady performance, with operating margins staying flat at 10-12%. The company has been pushed by market forces to shift its focus from providing consulting services solely based on its products to helping clients implement software from other companies. This shift is similar to the approach of a System Integrator. Despite IBM's attempt to emulate the cost arbitrage model of the leading Indian SI players, it has not been successful. Additionally, the margins in the consulting business have decreased, whereas the software business provides healthy margins due to the negligible marginal cost of selling an additional unit.
- To summarise, It's unsurprising that IBM is undervalued in comparison to its peers, given the various aspects that have been discussed. Wall Street analysts view IBM as a dividend stock with limited potential for capital growth, which is reflected in its forward PE of 14 and the market cap of $129Bn only, 18 times less than Microsoft's market cap of $2.4Tn.
My other posts on Generative AI and Strategic Analysis of Key Players
- AI Value Chain
- Amazon the King of Retail -WhyAWS is the Crown Jewel
- Microsoft the King of AI in Software, Salesforce under the AI Cloud
- Tesla - It's not a Car, It's an AI Device on Wheels
- Google the King of Search - What the Future Beholds in the AI World
- Nvidia Godfather of AI - Why the Market is Bullish
- Generative AI can transform Telecoms, Energy and Utilities
Sunday, October 01, 2023
Generative AI - Changing the World, Key Players and Their Progress
Generative AI - Changing the World, Key Players and Their Progress - Part One
Singularity - Humanity on the Cusp of Achieving It?
What is Singularity?
A singularity is a theoretical condition that could arrive in the near future when a synthesis of several powerful new technologies will radically change the realities in which we find ourselves in an unpredictable manner.- Genetics (Bio-Technology)
- Nanotechnology
- Artificial intelligence AI
- Google's Bard, Gemini, BERT and T5
- Metas RoBERTa and XLM-R
- Tesla's Dojo enabled FSD
- Microsoft's and Open AI's, ChatGPT 4 enabled Bing and Co-Pilot
- XiaoIce and MT-DNN
- Amazon's Alexa, and Bedrock
- Apple's Siri
- IBM's Watson Assistant and Project Debater
- Rasa
- Hugging Face
- NVIDIA's Megatron and Triton
- SalesForce's Einstein
- SAP's Conversational AI
- DALL.E3: Creates realistic images and art from a description in natural language
- FaceApp: The app generates highly realistic transformations of the human face
- Talk To Books: You type a query or statement in the search box, and it discovers books related to that query
- Magic Eraser: It allows you to remove any unwanted objects from your photo while extending the background
- Replika: Allows you to create an AI personality and build a relationship with it
- Elsa: Analyzes speech and acts as an English-speaking coach
- Socratic: Helps students with their homework by providing educational resources
- Character.AI: Users can create characters, including their personalities, and publish them to the community for others to interact with
- Point E: Generates a 3D image based on the text written
- Youper: Helps users deal with emotional struggles by presenting them with different psychological techniques
- Manufacturing (Tesla)
- Healthcare Exploration and Science
- Mining
- Education
- Entertainment M
- Military and Security and many more domains
- Advancing our understanding of genetics
- Identifying genetic predispositions
- Personalised medicine
- Advancing drug development, specifically, gene therapy
- Improving diagnostic accuracy
Another benefit of mRNA technology is that it can be used to develop vaccines and therapeutics for a wide range of diseases. These vaccines are already being used to protect against COVID-19, and therapeutics are being developed to treat cancer, infectious diseases, and other conditions.
- COVID-19 vaccines: The Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines are both mRNA vaccines. These vaccines have been shown to be very safe and effective at preventing serious illness, hospitalisation, and death from COVID-19.
- Cancer vaccines: mRNA vaccines are being developed to treat a variety of cancers, including melanoma, lung cancer, and pancreatic cancer. These vaccines work by teaching the immune system to recognise and attack cancer cells.
- Infectious disease vaccines: mRNA vaccines are also being developed to protect against other infectious diseases, such as HIV, malaria, and Zika virus.
- Therapeutic vaccines: mRNA vaccines are being developed to treat a variety of conditions, such as Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, and multiple sclerosis. These vaccines work by teaching the immune system to repair damaged cells or to remove harmful substances from the body.
- Treating sickle cell anemia
- Preventing cancer, CRISPR-Cas9 gene editing has been used to prevent cancer in mice. In a study, researchers used CRISPR-Cas9 gene editing to disable a gene that is involved in cancer development. The mice that received the CRISPR-Cas9 gene editing treatment were less likely to develop cancer than the mice that did not receive the treatment.
- Improving crop yields
Nanotechnology is the manipulation of matter on an atomic and molecular scale. It is a rapidly developing field with a wide range of potential applications in many different industries. Nanotechnology is already being used in a variety of industries, including:
- Healthcare: Nanotechnology is being used to develop new drugs and therapies, diagnostic tools, and medical devices. For example, nanoparticles can be used to deliver drugs directly to diseased cells, which can improve the effectiveness of the drugs and reduce side effects. Electronics: Nanotechnology is being used to develop new electronic devices that are smaller, faster, and more efficient than current devices. For example, carbon nanotubes can be used to make transistors that are much smaller and faster than silicon transistors.
- Energy: Nanotechnology is being used to develop new energy sources and storage devices. For example, nanomaterials can be used to make solar cells that are more efficient and less expensive than current solar cells.
- Environmental science: Nanotechnology is being used to develop new ways to clean up pollution and protect the environment. For example, nanomaterials can be used to remove pollutants from water and air.
- Food and agriculture: Nanotechnology is being used to develop new ways to produce and process food, and to improve the nutritional value of food. For example, nanomaterials can be used to make food packaging that is more effective at preserving food and preventing foodborne illness.
Here are some specific examples of how nanotechnology is being used in different industries:
- Healthcare:
- Nanoparticles are being used to deliver drugs directly to cancer cells, which can improve the effectiveness of the drugs and reduce side effects.
- Nanotechnology is being used to develop new diagnostic tools, such as blood tests that can detect cancer and other diseases early on.
- Nanotechnology is being used to develop new medical devices, such as artificial implants that are more durable and less likely to be rejected by the body.
- Electronics:
- Carbon nanotubes are being used to make transistors that are much smaller and faster than silicon transistors. Today TSMC has made a 3nm chip and is working on 2nm.
- Nanotechnology is being used to develop new types of batteries that are more efficient and have a longer lifespan than current batteries.
- Nanotechnology is being used to develop new types of displays that are brighter, more energy-efficient, and have higher resolution than current displays.
- Energy:
- Nanomaterials are being used to make solar cells that are more efficient and less expensive than current solar cells.
- Nanotechnology is being used to develop new types of fuel cells that are more efficient and produce less pollution than current fuel cells.
- Nanotechnology is being used to develop new types of batteries that can store more energy than current batteries.
- It is used in plasma-based tools in the recovery of oil and gas. These plasma processes are also used in additive manufacturing and 3D printing
- Environmental science:
- Nanomaterials are being used to remove pollutants from water and air.
- Nanotechnology is being used to develop new ways to clean up oil spills and other environmental disasters.
- Nanotechnology is being used to develop new ways to reduce the environmental impact of industrial processes.
- Food and agriculture:
- Nanomaterials are being used to make food packaging that is more effective at preserving food and preventing foodborne illness.
- Nanotechnology is being used to develop new ways to produce and process food, such as using nanomaterials to deliver nutrients to crops.
- Nanotechnology is being used to develop new ways to improve the nutritional value of food, such as using nanomaterials to encapsulate vitamins and minerals so that they are better absorbed by the body.
My other posts on similar topics like Generative AI and Strategic Analysis of Key Players
- AI Value Chain
- Amazon the King of Retail -WhyAWS is the Crown Jewel
- Microsoft the King of AI in Software, Salesforce under the AI Cloud
- Tesla - It's not a Car, It's an AI Device on Wheels
- Google the King of Search - What the Future Beholds in the AI World
- Nvidia Godfather of AI - Why the Market is Bullish
- IBM - How it Lost Its Way
- Generative AI can transform Telecoms, Energy and Utilities
Saturday, September 30, 2023
Tesla - Its not a Car, Its an AI Device on Wheels
Tesla - Evolution
Tesla's Secret of Success
Tesla - Where is the Growth
- AI Value Chain
- Amazon the King of Retail -WhyAWS is the Crown Jewel
- Microsoft the King of AI in Software, Salesforce under the AI Cloud
- Google the King of Search - What the Future Beholds in the AI World
- Taiwan Semiconductor - The Chipmaker That Runs The World
- Nvidia Godfather of AI - Why the Market is Bullish
- Generative AI can transform Telecoms, Energy and Utilities
Friday, September 29, 2023
Taiwan Semiconductor - The Chipmaker That Runs The World
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - The Chipmaker That Runs The World
Key Indicators
- Domain: Semiconductors
- Comp. (Chip Manf) – Samsung, SMIC, GFS, UMC
- Growth Segment – HPC AI Chips (Up)
- Economic Moat – Wide
- Cyclical - Yes
- TSMC's revenue is made up of 26% from Apple and 7% from Nvidia. Apple has a 10-year partnership with the chip maker.
- Apple designs chips for iPhones and Mac computers, while Google designs Tensor Chips for Pixel smartphones. Qualcomm and MediaTek design processors for Android phones. Nvidia designs Gaming and Artificial Intelligence (AI) processors, and AMD and Nvidia design advanced processors for Tesla.
- TSMC chips are also used by major cloud providers like AWS, MSFT, Google, Oracle, and IBM for data centres, networking, and software. Broadcom designs chips for broadband and wireless markets.
Generative Artificial Intelligence (Gen - AI)
training data.
Various types of Gen AI chips are
- GPU (Graphics Processing Unit)
- TPU (Tensor Processing Unit)
- FPGA (Field-Programmable Gate Array)
- ASIC (Application-Specific Integrated Circuit)
- Neuromorphic Chips
- AI Value Chain
- Amazon the King of Retail -WhyAWS is the Crown Jewel
- Microsoft the King of AI in Software, Salesforce under the AI Cloud
- Tesla - It's not a Car, Its an AI Device on Wheels
- Google the King of Search - What the Future Beholds in the AI World
- Nvidia Godfather of AI - Why the Market is Bullish
- Generative AI can transform Telecoms, Energy and Utilities